Murphy Choy

Abuses of analytic: Poor Soul, Poor Analytic

In Uncategorized on June 17, 2011 at 2:18 am

Very often, most people working in the field seem to see analytic as a panacea to every problems out there. However, this is definitely not the case and it is almost interesting that the worst abuses are at the places where it should work the best.

A recent discussion with some students have turned up some very disturbing trend of analytic usage. One poor soul suggested that we should use analytic forecasting methods to predict where the opposition party members are and seek to eliminate them. I am sure that the leading party will agree that this is a good strategy but one that will ultimately backfire on them.

Analytic has some degree of uncertainty which is associated with the model which is being used to model the reality. This level of uncertainty is naturally controlled in non human interference environment. However, human do react to stimulus and any models which predicts their behavior and in a certain way provoke those behaviors will have artificially created a reaction.

This effect is most often seen in marketing campaign where the response rate is very low even though the predicted rates are supposed to be much higher. Thus proper application of analytic is very important. I certainly hope this poor soul will not abuse analytic leading to unnecessary polarization of the society through the naive use of a wonderful model.


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